Outcome trajectories for violent and sex offenders in recovery residences with a substance use disorder compared to non-offending residents

Objectives: This study aimed to explore the outcomes for people convicted of violent and sex offences compared to non-offenders for people with a substance use disorder (SUD) residing in recovery residences (RR).

Methods: We employed marginal structural models (MSM) to estimate causal effects on program retention, completion, and changes in recovery capital in Virginia (n = 757) from April 2020 to April 2023.

Results: Violent offenders were significantly less likely to be retained than non-offenders. Sex offenders displayed unique outcome trajectories, including being more likely to be retained, more likely to complete their recovery programme, and less likely to have a negative discharge outcome. For sex offenders, recovery capital measures atrophied before discharge, although this did not affect the likelihood of future positive outcomes.

Conclusions: Recovery residences should consider addressing retention for violent offenders and develop strengths-based community assets such as dedicated housing provision and specialist programs designed explicitly for sex offenders at discharge.